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Populations of New Zealand and Australia at the Millennium

A joint Special Issue of the Journal of Population Research and the New Zealand Population Review

Edited by Gordon A. Carmichael with A. Dharmalingam

Published September 2002
ISBN 0-9578572-1-7

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THE FUTURE EXTENT OF POPULATION AGEING IN AUSTRALIA
Rebecca Kippen, The Australian National University

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Abstract
This paper discusses the reasons for population ageing in Australia and considers the extent of population ageing in the future given different levels of the three components of population change: fertility, mortality and migration. While population ageing is inevitable, the degree of ageing in the long term will be highly dependent on future levels of fertility, mortality and migration. Hyperageing will be prevented if Australia maintains fertility close to current levels and net migration is kept around 50,000–100,000 per annum. Higher levels of migration add large numbers to the population without significantly affecting the age structure. The extent of ageing may be greater than official projections indicate if mortality falls faster than anticipated.