Journal of Population Research : JPR18-2

ISSN 1443-2447

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JPR18-2

Volume 18, Number 2, November 2001

Contents

	Editor's Note	iii PDF
John C. Caldwell & Pat Caldwell	Regional Paths to Fertility Transition	91-117 PDF
Francesco C. Billari	The Analysis of Early Life Courses: Complex Descriptions of the Transition to Adulthood	119-142 PDF
Gunnar Andersson & Gebremariam Woldemicael	Sex Composition of Children as a Determinant of Marriage Disruption and Marriage Formation: Evidence from Swedish Register Data	143-153 PDF
Sarah Salway	Why is Contraceptive Use Inversely Associated with Lactational Amenorrhoea? Qualitative and Quantitative Insights from Bangladesh	155-176 PDF
John Quiggin	Perspective Demography and the New Economy	177-193 PDF
	Book reviews	155-176 PDF

Abstracts

REGIONAL PATHS TO FERTILITY TRANSITION

John C. Caldwell, The Australian National University
Pat Caldwell, The Australian National University

New sources of data on national fertility declines are used to examine the nature of fertility transition in major regions. These regions are defined by geographical and cultural criteria as well as by the forces attempting to shape fertility control. Particular attention is devoted to the timing of the onsets of fertility decline in the different countries of each region, and the rapidity of fertility decline within each country. The study finds greater similarities between the transitions than have sometimes been assumed.

THE ANALYSIS OF EARLY LIFE COURSES: COMPLEX DESCRIPTIONS OF THE TRANSITION TO ADULTHOOD

Francesco C. Billari, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

The quantitative analysis of life courses has to deal with a complex pattern of interrelated events and trajectories. Such a complex pattern needs complex measurement tools, even if only to describe the experience of cohorts. This paper addresses the methodological issue of describing the transition to adulthood from a life course perspective, following an event-based definition. New proposals are developed and traditional approaches are discussed, using Italy as an example. A generalization of survivor functions for the analysis of the temporal relationships between two events is introduced and applied. The paper then deals with the problem of describing the process of transition to adulthood as a whole, making use of the sequence analysis approach with special emphasis on the empirical analyses of the 'standardization vs individualization' hypotheses.

SEX COMPOSITION OF CHILDREN AS A DETERMINANT OF MARRIAGE DISRUPTION AND MARRIAGE FORMATION: EVIDENCE FROM SWEDISH REGISTER DATA

Gunnar Andersson, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Gebremariam Woldemicael, University of Asmara, Eritrea

This paper investigates the effect of sex composition of children on the propensity of Swedish mothers to enter and leave marriage. Swedish population-register data are used to estimate relative risks of marriage formation and marriage dissolution for mothers with different numbers and sexes of children. The large number of observations allows us to get a very accurate picture of such relationships even if they are relatively weak. Morgan et al. (1988) used survey data for the US and claimed to have found that one- and two-child parents in that country had lower divorce risks if they had sons than if they had daughters. For Sweden, we find only a minor effect in the same direction for three-child mothers. For two-child mothers, we instead find that the divorce risk is slightly reduced if a woman has one child of each sex. The divorce risk of one-child mothers is not at all affected by the sex of the child. Finally, the sex composition of children has no effect on the propensity of Swedish mothers to enter the married state.

WHY IS CONTRACEPTIVE USE INVERSELY ASSOCIATED WITH LACTATIONAL AMENORRHOEA? QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE INSIGHTS FROM BANGLADESH

Sarah Salway, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Over the past 15-20 years observations in many parts of the world have revealed a negative association between the natural protection afforded by lactational amenorrhoea and contraceptive uptake. This paper uses qualitative and quantitative data to explore the possible explanations for this negative association in two Bangladeshi populations, one urban and one rural. The findings suggest that an subconscious substitution of contraceptive protection for natural protection against pregnancy is the most likely explanation. It appears that shorter durations of exclusive breastfeeding have led to earlier resumption of menses which in turn prompts the use of contraception. However, other mechanisms appear to play a subsidiary role, at least in the rural population. Moreover, changes in breastfeeding cannot be viewed as totally independent of the promotion of modern family planning. Evidence suggests that family planning staff are poorly equipped to support breastfeeding and may often encourage the early introduction of supplements. There is a need to consider ways of promoting exclusive breastfeeding as well as ensuring ready access to contraception when fecundity resumes postpartum. Only such an integrated approach is likely to ensure that both negative effects on child health and unwanted pregnancies are avoided.

DEMOGRAPHY AND THE NEW ECONOMY

John Quiggin, The Australian National University

The term 'New Economy' is used to refer to two distinct developments. The first is the increasing importance of pure services, particularly those related to information, and the corresponding decline in the importance of the goods-producing sector. The second is the liberalization of product and labour markets and the resulting decline of institutions like lifetime full employment. This development has been particularly evident in Australia and other English-speaking countries. Although there are connections between these two developments, their demographic implications are quite different. An information-based economy implies long periods of education, late childbearing and a reversal of the trend towards early retirement. Labour market liberalization implies extensive use of redundancy as a tool for labour force flexibility and an accentuation of the trend for workers over 50 to withdraw from the labour market. This trend has been sustainable so far because the baby boom has resulted in an increase in the proportion of the population aged 25 to 54. Within the next decade, this proportion will start to decline. If current institutions are maintained, an economic 'ageing crisis' will arrive at least a decade earlier than would be suggested by an examination of traditional dependency ratios.