Journal of Population Research : JPR17-1

ISSN 1443-2447

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JPR17-1

Volume 17, Number 1, May 2000

Peter McDonald	Gender Equity, Social Institutions and the Future of Fertility	1-16
John Stillwell, Martin Bell, Marcus Blake, Oliver Duke-Williams, Phil Rees	Net Migration and Migration Effectiveness: A Comparison between Australia and the United Kingdom, 1976-96 Part 1: Total Migration Patterns	17-38
Gavin W. Jones, Terence H. Hull, Dennis Ahlburg	The Social and Demographic Impact of the Southeast Asian Crisis of 1997-99	39-62 PDF
Yohannes Kinfu	Below-Replacement Fertility in Tropical Africa? Some Evidence from Addis Ababa	63-82
Hoda Rashad	Demographic Transition in Arab Countries: A New Perspective	83-101

Abstracts

GENDER EQUITY, SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND THE FUTURE OF FERTILITY

Peter McDonald, The Australian National University

Sustained very low levels of fertility in advanced countries can be explained by incoherence between the levels of gender equity applying in different social institutions. In countries with very low levels of fertility, high levels of gender equity are postulated in institutions that deal with people as individuals, while low levels of gender equity apply in institutions that deal with people as members of families.

NET MIGRATION AND MIGRATION EFFECTIVENESS: A COMPARISON BETWEEN AUSTRALIA AND THE UNITED KINGDOM, 1976-96
PART 1: TOTAL MIGRATION PATTERNS

John Stillwell, University of Leeds
Martin Bell, University of Adelaide
Marcus Blake, University of Adelaide
Oliver Duke-Williams, University of Leeds
Phil Rees, University of Leeds

A nation's population is redistributed through migration flows and counterflows between its constituent subnational areas, resulting in a geographical pattern of net migration gains or losses which may change from one time period to another. Migration effectiveness is the indicator commonly used to measure net migration as a proportion of gross migration turnover for any territorial unit. This paper explores the effect of net migration in two different countries, Australia and the United Kingdom, using measures of migration effectiveness computed from period-age migration data sets for a system of city regions assembled for four consecutive five-year periods in each country. While the evidence suggests that the overall effectiveness of net migration has declined over the 20-year period in both countries, marked similarities and contrasts are apparent in the spatial patterning of migration that together provide useful analytical insights into the changing space economies of the two countries.

THE SOCIAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN CRISIS OF 1997-99

Gavin W. Jones, The Australian National University
Terence H. Hull, The Australian National University
Dennis Ahlburg, University of Minnesota

When an unexpected financial crisis overtook Southeast Asia in 1997 planners and policymakers feared that the economic difficulties would unwind two decades of remarkable economic and social development. Newspaper headlines spoke of massive increases in poverty, unemployment and malnutrition, and it was speculated that family planning programs would collapse and fertility would rise dramatically. Infant and child mortality and maternal mortality were also expected to increase. This paper briefly reviews the onset of the financial crisis as a background for assessing whether speculations about the demographic and social effects tallied with reality. It is found that these effects were neither as dramatic nor as easy to monitor as some of the public debate implied. The general lesson is that the most serious social and demographic problems were not so much the products of crisis as embedded in chronic weaknesses that had become entrenched in times of economic growth. The crisis exposed these weaknesses.

BELOW-REPLACEMENT FERTILITY IN TROPICAL AFRICA? SOME EVIDENCE FROM ADDIS ABABA

Yohannes Kinfu, The Australian National University

In the past few years there has been a gradual but progressive shift away from the long held scepticism about the prospect of reproductive change in Tropical Africa. Consequently, the question is now not so much whether Tropical Africa remains a spectator of fertility transition, but whether and how soon fertility in the region will decline to level attained in other parts of the world. Using data from a series of censuses and surveys conducted in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, a country which itself has high fertility, this study explores emerging evidence of fertility levels below two children per woman in an African city. Postponement of marriage and increased incidence of non-marriage, as well as a decline in marital fertility recorded across all birth orders and all age group, are the routes by which the observed transition to below-replacement fertility has been achieved. The paper outlines some tentative institutional and cultural factors that may have contributed to these changes.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIN IN ARAB COUNTRIES: A NEW PERSPECTIVE

Hoda Rashad, The American University in Cairo

This paper provides a new perspective on the fertility transition in Arab countries. It shows that the story of Arab fertility must be retold: the story is of a region with the highest fertility preferences, exhibiting reluctance to change due to the strangle-hold of cultural forces, and just starting to respond to development forces. The paper shows that Arab regional experience is quite comparable to that of other developing countries and that, though the fertility decline occurred at a somewhat later date, the pace of decline more than compensates for this delay. Furthermore, the probing of country level experiences and forces underlying the transition shows the diversities of these experiences and the exaggeration of the role of cultural specificity. It also demonstrates that a large part of the decline in Arab fertility is due to changes in nuptiality. For some segments of society and some countries, these changes are not paralleled by increased opportunities for women to have more fulfilling lives. For these women, the fertility decline is not necessarily improving the quality of their lives and cannot be equated with progress and development.